Persistent Artificial Intelligence and data center demand in 1Q26 is deepening the imbalance between global memory supply and demand, which is strengthening suppliers’ pricing power across the industry. In response to the accelerating tightness in the market, TrendForce has sharply upgraded its price outlook for both DRAM and NAND Flash products, signaling a far more aggressive upswing than previously anticipated. The revised projections suggest that memory buyers will face significantly higher costs as contract negotiations for the quarter progress.
The quarter-over-quarter increase in conventional DRAM contract prices has been revised upward, from a previous estimate of 55-60% to now 90-95%. Similarly, NAND Flash contract prices are now expected to rise from 33-38% to 55-60%. TrendForce notes that this pricing trajectory remains subject to further upward adjustments, indicating that the current forecasts may still be conservative if supply conditions tighten further or if demand from Artificial Intelligence and data center applications continues to accelerate beyond expectations.
Stronger-than-expected PC shipments in 4Q25 have added pressure to the market by driving a widespread shortage of PC DRAM. Even tier-1 PC OEMs with secured allocations from memory suppliers are experiencing declining inventory levels, highlighting how quickly available stock is being absorbed. In a market dominated by sellers, which is driving contract prices higher, PC DRAM prices in 1Q26 are projected to increase by over 100% QoQ, setting a new record for a quarterly surge and underscoring the intensity of the current upcycle in memory pricing.
