Memory manufacturers expect shortages to persist until the end of 2028, when supply chain balance is expected to be restored and memory is expected to return to commodity status. Companies are reconsidering expansion plans to avoid overinvesting in new capacity after demand cools. Samsung’s internal projections indicate that demand for DRAM products such as HBM and regular DDR will peak in the next few quarters, up until the end of 2028. That is the point when Samsung expects industry-wide demand to cool down and balance to be restored.
As the Artificial Intelligence expansion accelerated, memory manufacturers received massive orders from hyperscalers worldwide, with DRAM supply booked months in advance. SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung responded by ordering more lithography tools from ASML to expand wafer manufacturing capacity for HBM, DDR, and GDDR memory. According to ASML, the company estimates that in 2027, based on current order information and demand, it will deliver 56 Low-NA EUV scanners. This includes seven units for Samsung and as many as 20 units for SK Hynix, specifically for memory and storage.
According to South Korean media, SK Hynix plans to install 20 Low-NA EUV units in the next two years, all designed for HBM memory and advanced storage solutions. Even so, the expected demand trajectory appears to match previous expansion plans rather than justify a further increase in fab capacity. That is leading memory makers to hold back from pushing expansion beyond what was already planned, despite shortages continuing through late 2028.
