team Group general manager Gerry Chen says global memory markets are entering a multiyear upcycle after a sharp supply shortage pushed December contract prices for key dram categories up by 80 to 100%. he told customers and partners the move marks the start of a long period of constrained supply and higher prices, and that the most acute stress will arrive in the first half of 2026 once distributors deplete their inventories. the price shock is already visible in system bills of materials, with memory’s share in pc and notebook boms rising from the mid-teens to the mid-20s and higher depending on configuration.
costs for ddr5 and ssds have, on average, increased two to three times, and overall dram pricing is up 171.8% year-over-year. cloud service providers are securing allocations into 2026 and 2027, locking in supply ahead of mainstream channels and reducing availability for consumer and cost-sensitive devices. chen said even hyperscalers cannot capture all available capacity because tier-1 U.S. and Chinese cloud order books are effectively filled to 70% capacity, which has eliminated the safety stock many buyers believed they had.
the immediate consequences include the risk of meaningful shipment declines in price-sensitive segments such as mainstream pcs, notebooks, and Chromebooks as manufacturers face higher component bills. oems and system builders will need to rebalance sourcing and product mixes, and buyers without long-term allocations may be forced to delay or scale back builds. team Group frames the current spike as the opening phase of a prolonged upcycle rather than a short-term blip, signaling sustained upward pressure on memory pricing until capacity and inventory dynamics normalize.
