Wall Street’s hunt for the next big thing has fueled dramatic gains in pure-play quantum computing stocks, with IonQ up 668 percent, D-Wave Quantum up 2,622 percent, and Rigetti Computing up 3,848 percent. Interest is broadening as quantum-focused exchange-traded funds gather momentum. Yet the article cautions that many startups are burning cash and funding progress via at-the-market offerings while their niche hardware and narrow use cases may leave them years, if not decades, from fault-tolerant systems and sustainable profits.
The piece makes the case that IBM is the better quantum computing bet for long-term investors. IBM has invested in the field for decades, having first conceptualized quantum computing and steadily advancing the technology since the 1980s. In 2019 it launched IBM Quantum System One, described as the first commercial quantum computer. Unlike startups, IBM targets enterprises with hybrid quantum-classical systems and already operates a cloud ecosystem accessible to Fortune 500 clients. It is profitable, pays a 2.38 percent dividend yield, and has the ability to fund research throughout market cycles.
IBM’s roadmap calls for building a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, a target set following breakthroughs reported in June. The company has a track record of meeting its quantum milestones. Financially, IBM posted net income in the second quarter of 2025 and continues to grow its core businesses, with software revenue up 10 percent year over year and consulting up 3 percent in that period. It also has 30 consecutive years of dividend increases, which the article argues could keep investors in the green even if quantum timelines slip or broader tech enthusiasm cools.
Framing IBM as a potential “next Nvidia,” the article argues that if IBM delivers quantum systems that outperform traditional computing, the market is likely to assign a premium. Should IBM sell quantum technology to Artificial Intelligence companies and hyperscalers, its valuation could expand significantly. While speculative, the author outlines a scenario where a 1,000 percent return over the next decade or two is possible if quantum breakthroughs translate into commercial viability. For investors seeking exposure to the space, the conclusion is to keep small speculative positions in startups while weighting IBM more heavily as the steadier, more proven contender.
