September updates from Cohen Arnold’s business news page point to shifting dynamics across trade, monetary policy and inflation. A World Trade Organisation report said advances in artificial intelligence could lift the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040 through productivity gains and lower trade costs. At home, the Bank of England kept interest rates at 4% as inflation remains nearly twice target, while the British Chambers of Commerce warned that firms continue to face pressure after the annual rate of inflation held at 3.8% in August.
Fiscal and regulatory debates intensified. The Chancellor was urged to cut National Insurance contributions and raise Income Tax to create a level playing field and protect pay. The Chancellor will also explore reforms to business rates on second premises to fix cliff edges that can deter small business investment, according to HM Treasury. The Institute of Directors said the Budget Board must prioritise easing the cost of doing business. Separately, the Treasury Committee argued that more must be done to reform Lifetime ISAs. Industry groups raised red flags too: UK soft drinks producers warned that proposed changes to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy could damage business confidence, and MPs heard that four million calls to HMRC go unanswered each year, risking undermining compliance and revenue targets. IPSE, the Self-Employed Association, warned that lowering the VAT registration threshold would breach Labour’s manifesto.
Consumer and market indicators were mixed. Research published by Santander put the annual cost of failed housing transactions at at least £1.5 billion. The Resolution Foundation reported that the number of customers falling behind on energy bills with no repayment plan in place has more than tripled between 2012 and 2024. Despite an upgraded forecast, the British Chambers of Commerce said the overall outlook for the UK economy remains subdued. Meanwhile, the government opened a voluntary Covid repayment window, allowing recipients of financial support to return money they were not entitled to or did not need with no questions asked.
