Phison CEO Khein-Seng Pua confirmed that NAND flash spot prices have more than doubled over a six-month period as demand from Artificial Intelligence infrastructure rapidly depleted inventories across the supply chain. Pua highlighted specific moves in the market, noting that the price of a 1 terabit TLC NAND jumped from NULL.80 in July 2025 to NULL.70 in November 2025, an increase of over 100 percent in less than half a year. Other NAND types, including MLC and QLC, have seen spot prices more than double during the same period.
Pua warned that the shortage could be long lasting, potentially stretching for years or even a decade. He pointed to the structure of previous NAND cycles, where heavy investment after price spikes often led to capacity overhangs and subsequent price collapses, which in turn caused many flash manufacturers to scale back or slow expansion. Beginning around 2023, a sizable portion of capital investment shifted toward high-bandwidth memory used for model training because of its stronger margins. That redirection of investment coincided with a resurgence in NAND demand, leaving the sector underprepared as inventories tightened.
To address tight supply, new NAND manufacturing sites and production lines are being planned and built, but Pua cautioned that these facilities will not come online quickly enough to relieve the immediate shortage. He said new production lines are not expected to be operational until 2027, which supports his earlier warning about prolonged constraints. The combination of redirected capital, rapid Artificial Intelligence-driven demand growth, and delayed additional capacity underpins his view that NAND market pressures may persist for an extended period.
