The International Energy Agency’s 2025 review paints a more constrained near-term picture for clean hydrogen. Several major projects have been canceled or delayed across the US, Europe, Africa, the Americas, and Australia. The United States is seeing a particular slowdown after changes to key tax credits and cuts in support for renewable energy, though the report highlights regional bright spots, including China and emerging markets in Southeast Asia.
One notable change in the 2025 edition is a downward revision in expectations for annual low-emissions hydrogen production by 2030. Today about one million metric tons of low-emissions hydrogen are produced annually, representing less than 1 percent of total hydrogen production. The IEA had projected up to 49 million metric tons by 2030 in last year’s report but now forecasts 37 million metric tons, the first cut in its decade-long trend of rising projections. The agency attributes the pullback largely to cancellations of electrolysis projects and carbon capture initiatives.
China is the dominant force in electrolyzer manufacturing and deployment. As of July 2025, China accounted for 65 percent of installed or nearly installed electrolyzer capacity worldwide and manufactures nearly 60 percent of electrolyzers. The IEA notes a significant cost advantage: making and installing an electrolyzer outside China is roughly three times more expensive today. That advantage could allow China to produce green hydrogen at costs competitive with fossil-based hydrogen by the end of the decade.
Southeast Asia is identified as a potential growth region. The region already consumes about four million metric tons of hydrogen annually, mainly for oil refining and chemical production such as ammonia and methanol. International shipping activity centered in ports like Singapore, which supplied about one-sixth of global shipping fuel in 2024, creates demand that could shift toward cleaner fuels. There are 25 hydrogen projects under development in the region, but the report stresses that additional support for renewables will be essential to scale capacity.
Overall, the report frames hydrogen’s current moment as a reality check that narrows earlier optimism while identifying clear pathways and regional leaders that could determine whether the fuel meets its long-term potential. The next five years will be critical for converting projects under development into operational, low-emissions capacity.
