The great AI delusion is falling apart

Experts and real-world trials question whether Artificial Intelligence delivers the productivity gains promised by its advocates.

The persistent hype around Artificial Intelligence is colliding with stark realities in business settings. Despite grand promises, recent findings and critical analysis suggest that the anticipated leaps in workplace efficiency are often overstated, if not outright misleading. A pivotal randomized controlled trial by research lab METR found that experienced programmers using Artificial Intelligence tools believed they were completing tasks 20% faster. However, objective measurement showed they were on average 19% slower. This discrepancy highlights how self-perception, influenced by technological optimism or sales messaging, often fails to align with actual outcomes.

The critique doesn’t end with coding—similar doubts are echoed across varied business processes. Many Artificial Intelligence advocates pledge the ability to draft complex documents, like business plans, in a fraction of the traditional time, yet they conveniently ignore the necessary (and often extensive) review, editing, and verification stages that follow. The time saved in drafting can be lost or outweighed by the effort needed to ensure output accuracy, relevance, and usability. As one observer notes, skipping rigorous validation risks pushing incomplete or incorrect work into critical decision-making or public domains.

Moreover, the assumption that automating tasks through Artificial Intelligence frees up human capacity for creativity and strategic thinking is debunked as simplistic. Automating responses to a high volume of emails may only amplify incoming message flows, extending rather than shortening the circle of work. If Artificial Intelligence-generated outcomes require additional clarification or corrections, the net productivity gain evaporates. The underlying issue is the tendency to celebrate speed on micro-tasks rather than evaluating the true end-to-end efficiency of broader business processes. The article urges businesses and technologists to pursue a holistic understanding of productivity—where time saved must be measured against not just immediate output, but also the quality and completeness of results.

As organizations invest billions in Artificial Intelligence infrastructure, the absence of significant, provable gains in overall productivity is increasingly apparent. The looming risk is that marginal improvements will not justify enormous expenditures, potentially undermining both business strategies and worker well-being. Without transparent metrics and an honest appraisal of Artificial Intelligence´s real-world value, the gap between innovation hype and genuine work transformation only widens.

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