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As global economic tensions escalate, companies are seeking ways to manage the impacts of tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. Amid these challenges, Stanford University researchers, including Antonio Coppola and Matteo Maggiori from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, have unveiled the Geoeconomic Monitor—an interactive tool that leverages artificial intelligence to analyze how public companies react to various forms of economic coercion. The tool taps into earnings call transcripts and financial analyst reports, allowing policymakers, business leaders, and analysts to track near real-time business reactions to geopolitical maneuvers.
The newly released Geoeconomic Monitor, a project under The Global Capital Allocation Project, utilizes recent advancements in large language models to systematically process and interpret vast textual data sources. By analyzing over 360,000 corporate earnings call transcripts since 2008 and nearly 350,000 analyst reports starting from 2011, the tool provides a granular view of how companies discuss and strategize around economic pressures like tariffs. Notably, in the first two quarters of 2025, more than 5% of U.S. public companies signaled plans to raise prices following new import duties, and almost 15% indicated supply chain restructuring. These figures mark a significant increase from previous years, where such responses were rarely disclosed publicly.
The index further reveals that 68% of American firms now report a negative impact from tariffs—a marked rise compared to the 2018 U.S.-China trade war—and overall, 55% of global businesses voice tariff-related concerns. Among these, 40% note that even the threat of future tariffs is already adversely affecting their operations through decreased investment, waning investor confidence, or lost customers. The researchers emphasize the importance of such real-time data for understanding—and responding to—the complexities of modern geoeconomics, which involve not just enacted policies but also their mere threat. The Geoeconomic Monitor, powered by artificial intelligence, is designed to offer nuanced, up-to-date analytics for governments and corporations navigating the evolving landscape of economic statecraft.
