Nvidia: reduce to buy following recent outperformance

Analyst shifts Nvidia from strong buy to buy after a roughly 23% price surge, citing a less attractive short-term entry point. The note highlights a strategic investment in Intel, rising China revenue risk and a 31x NTM P/E valuation.

Nvidia was downgraded from a strong buy to a buy after the stock rallied about 23%, leaving the analyst with a less attractive short-term entry point. The author notes the earlier thesis from June, when shares had moved little for an extended period, and says the recent run-up reduces near-term upside absent fresh earnings catalysts. The recommendation change reflects a view that some consolidation is likely while the market digests the recent gains.

The report highlights a strategic investment in Intel that aims to enable tighter integration of x86 central processing units with Nvidia graphics processing units to expand data center solutions and product flexibility. The article describes the arrangement as a historic collaboration that couples Nvidia’s Artificial Intelligence and accelerated computing stack with Intel’s ecosystem. The precise size of the investment is not stated in the article.

China-related risk is called out as an increasing headwind. The note points to rising threats from export restrictions and stronger domestic competition in China, but says those risks were largely anticipated and, to some degree, priced in by investors. The author still sees meaningful strategic value in Nvidia’s data center positioning even as near-term revenue sensitivity to China grows.

On valuation the article cites a multiple of about 31 times next-twelve-months price to earnings, which the analyst views as reasonable but supportive of a more cautious stance after the recent surge. The conclusion is to expect near-term consolidation until new earnings catalysts arrive. The author discloses no current stock, option or similar derivative positions in the companies mentioned and says there are no plans to initiate positions within the next 72 hours.

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